Watches That Hold Their Value: The Data-Backed Investment Guide

Not all luxury watches are created equal when it comes to holding value. Some appreciate dramatically after discontinuation, while others lose 50%+ the moment you walk out of the boutique. This guide uses real secondary market pricing data from eBay to show you which watches hold value, which appreciate, and which to only buy pre-owned.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Watch values fluctuate based on market conditions, production changes, and collector trends. This guide reflects approximate secondary market prices as of early 2026.

Appreciating

These watches have historically traded above their original retail price on the secondary market.

Brand	Model	Retail	Secondary Market	Change
Rolex	Daytona (116500LN)Ceramic bezel Daytona; waitlist 5+ years	$14,800	$28,000-$35,000	+90-135%
Rolex	Submariner "Hulk" (116610LV)Discontinued 2020; green dial + bezel	$9,150	$18,000-$25,000	+95-170%
Rolex	GMT-Master II "Pepsi" (126710BLRO)Blue/red ceramic; Jubilee bracelet	$10,800	$18,000-$22,000	+65-100%
Patek Philippe	Nautilus 5711/1ADiscontinued 2021; iconic luxury sport	$35,000	$90,000-$130,000	+155-270%
Audemars Piguet	Royal Oak 15500ST41mm blue dial; strong waitlist demand	$23,000	$35,000-$42,000	+50-80%

Strong Value Retention

These watches retain 80-110% of retail value, making them among the safest purchases in the luxury watch market.

Brand	Model	Retail	Secondary Market	Change
Rolex	Submariner Date (126610LN)Current production; 41mm ceramic	$10,150	$12,000-$15,000	+18-48%
Rolex	Explorer (124270)36mm reissue; strong collector demand	$7,200	$8,500-$10,500	+18-46%
Rolex	Oyster Perpetual 36 (126000)Entry Rolex; color dials command premium	$6,500	$7,000-$9,500	+8-46%
Omega	Speedmaster Professional (3861)Moon Watch; iconic status; slow depreciation	$6,600	$5,500-$6,500	-2 to -17%
Tudor	Black Bay 58 (79030N)Best sub-$5K retention; 39mm perfection	$3,975	$3,200-$3,800	-4 to -19%

Moderate Depreciation

These watches lose 20-40% from retail but stabilize, making them good "buy pre-owned" targets.

Brand	Model	Retail	Secondary Market	Change
Tudor	Pelagos (25600TN)Titanium diver; great value pre-owned	$4,575	$3,000-$3,500	-23 to -34%
Omega	Seamaster 300M (210.30)Best value luxury diver pre-owned	$5,700	$3,800-$4,500	-21 to -33%
Rolex	Datejust 41 (126300)Steel/fluted bezel holds best; smooth bezel depreciates more	$8,100	$8,000-$10,000	-1 to +23%
Cartier	Santos Medium (WSSA0029)Classic design; stabilizes well pre-owned	$7,550	$5,500-$6,500	-14 to -27%
Breitling	Navitimer B01 (AB0138)Iconic pilot watch; buy pre-owned for best value	$9,350	$5,500-$7,000	-25 to -41%

Significant Depreciation

These lose 40%+ from retail. Buy pre-owned only unless you truly love the watch.

Brand	Model	Retail	Secondary Market	Change
TAG Heuer	Carrera ChronographHeavy depreciation; excellent pre-owned value	$5,900	$2,500-$3,500	-40 to -58%
Panerai	Luminor Marina (PAM01312)Niche appeal; overproduction in 2010s	$8,600	$4,500-$5,500	-36 to -48%
Hublot	Big Bang SteelSteep depreciation; buy used for half price	$13,100	$5,000-$7,000	-47 to -62%
Zenith	Chronomaster SportExcellent movement; underrated pre-owned	$10,000	$5,500-$7,000	-30 to -45%

5 Rules for Buying Watches That Hold Value

1. Buy steel sport models from top-tier brands
Stainless steel sport watches from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet hold value best. The combination of high demand, limited production, and durable materials creates a floor under prices. Gold and two-tone models from the same brands often depreciate more.
2. Discontinued models appreciate; current production depreciates
When Rolex discontinues a reference (like the Submariner "Hulk" in 2020), supply becomes fixed while demand continues. This is the single most reliable driver of appreciation. Current production models are always at risk of price drops when new versions launch.
3. Buy pre-owned at the "depreciation floor"
Most watches hit their lowest resale value 3-5 years after purchase, then stabilize. Buying at this floor (e.g., a 3-year-old Omega Speedmaster) means you get most of the depreciation absorbed by the original buyer. Your total cost of ownership drops dramatically.
4. Condition and completeness matter enormously
A watch with original box, papers, warranty card, and hang tags sells for 15-30% more than the same watch without documentation. Unpolished cases, original dials, and matching serial numbers on the warranty card all command premiums. A "full set" is always worth the extra cost.
5. Wear it — the best watch investment is one you enjoy
Unlike stocks, watches don't generate returns while sitting in a safe. The true value proposition is wearing a quality timepiece that also holds its value. A Rolex Submariner that you wear daily for 10 years and sell at cost is a far better "investment" than a speculative flip that ties up capital.

Value Retention by Brand

Rolex

Excellent

Steel sport models retain 85-120%+ of retail. Dress models and precious metals depreciate more. Best overall brand for value retention.

Patek Philippe

Excellent

Nautilus and Aquanaut trade far above retail. Complications hold well. Calatrava dress watches depreciate 20-30%.

Audemars Piguet

Very Good

Royal Oak steel holds 80-110% of retail. Other collections depreciate more. Strong brand cachet.

Omega

Good

Speedmaster Professional holds best (60-80%). Most others depreciate 30-50% from retail. Excellent pre-owned value.

Tudor

Good

Black Bay 58 leads retention (80-95%). Most models depreciate 20-40%. Best value in the $3K-$5K range.

Cartier

Moderate

Santos and Tank hold well (70-85%). Calibre and Ballon Bleu depreciate more. Jewelry association helps brand value.

Breitling

Moderate

Navitimer holds best (55-70%). Most models depreciate 30-45%. Buy pre-owned for best value.

TAG Heuer

Poor

Heavy depreciation (40-60% from retail). Excellent watches but not investment pieces. Always buy pre-owned.

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Rolex Submariner Omega Speedmaster Tudor Black Bay 58 Rolex Daytona

Frequently Asked Questions

Do Rolex watches hold their value?

Yes, Rolex watches are among the best value-holders in the luxury watch market. Most steel sport models (Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona) retain 85-120% of retail value on the secondary market. Discontinued models like the Submariner 'Hulk' (116610LV) have appreciated 40-60% above their original retail price. However, not every Rolex holds value equally — precious metal models, Cellini dress watches, and common Datejust configurations may depreciate 20-40% from retail. The key factors are model popularity, production numbers, and whether the watch has been discontinued.

Do Tudor watches hold their value?

Tudor watches hold value better than most brands in their price range ($2,000-$5,000) but generally depreciate 20-40% from retail in the first few years. The exception is the Tudor Black Bay 58 and some limited editions, which have held near or above retail due to strong demand. Tudor's in-house movements (introduced 2015+) and Rolex brand association give them better resale than competitors like TAG Heuer or Longines. For investment purposes, Tudor is a 'slow depreciation' brand rather than an appreciating asset.

What is the best investment watch under $10,000?

The best investment watches under $10,000 based on historical value retention are: (1) Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36mm ($6,500-$8,500) — strong retention, entry-level Rolex with broad appeal; (2) Rolex Air-King ($7,000-$9,000) — undervalued Rolex sport model; (3) Tudor Black Bay 58 ($3,500-$4,500 pre-owned) — best value retention in the sub-$5K segment; (4) Omega Speedmaster Professional ($5,000-$7,000) — iconic 'Moon Watch' with decades of proven demand. For pure investment, pre-owned Rolex steel sport models offer the most predictable value retention.

Do Omega watches hold their value?

Omega watches typically depreciate 30-50% from retail in the first few years, then stabilize. The major exception is the Speedmaster Professional 'Moon Watch,' which holds 60-80% of retail value due to its iconic status and NASA heritage. Vintage Omega watches (1950s-1970s Seamasters, Constellations, Speedmasters) have appreciated significantly over the past decade. The Swatch Group MoonSwatch collaboration has increased awareness but hasn't significantly impacted Speedmaster resale values. For investment, focus on the Speedmaster Professional or vintage pieces.

What watches appreciate in value?

Watches that consistently appreciate are: (1) Rolex sport models with steel cases, especially discontinued references (Submariner 'Hulk,' GMT 'Batman' on Jubilee, Daytona ceramic); (2) Patek Philippe Nautilus and Aquanaut; (3) Audemars Piguet Royal Oak; (4) Vintage watches from any major brand in excellent condition with original parts; (5) Limited editions with genuine scarcity (not artificial marketing scarcity). The common thread is strong demand exceeding supply — whether from discontinuation, waitlists, or collector interest in vintage pieces.

Are watches a good investment in 2026?

The luxury watch market in 2026 has corrected 15-25% from the speculative peak of 2022, making it a more rational environment for buyers. Watches should be considered a store of value rather than a primary investment vehicle — they don't generate income like stocks or real estate. That said, select models (Rolex sport steel, Patek Philippe complications, vintage pieces) have historically outpaced inflation over 10+ year periods. Buy what you'll enjoy wearing, and value retention becomes a bonus rather than the sole motivation.

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